6 month checkup

So, what was I writing about in Jan 2012?

I was toying around with TA as an experiment.

I suggested buying IDH (Immuno Diag) on 24 Jan at 299.5p for the exhaustion gap, and selling at 356p later that month for 18.9% on account of the gap filling. It has since fallen to 244p. I’m impressed.

Prior to that was CRE (Creston) at 47.88p for the exhaustion gap. Currently stands at nearly 92p. Lovely jubbly.

I said that IAE (Ithaca Energy) looked interesting at 174p, despite a price run-up and looking overbought. “Not bad, even if the bid doesn’t work out.” Well, the bid didn’t work out. The price is now 130p, so that clearly wasn’t one of my better ideas. Buying because of bids is a bad bad idea, as I found out with SBT (SportingBet). Moral: never buy on bid rumours, or bid announcements. Too much can go wrong. In the event, I actually bought some IAE a few weeks after the bid collapsed, at about 107p. So, in real life, I’m doing OK on it.

I declared ACHL (Asian Citrus Holdings) uninvestable junk at any price. So far, ACHL has lived up to my expectations, dropping about 19% during the period, as opposed to the Footsie of -2%. Oh dear.

My bail-out on PTEC on account of the fishy smells didn’t prove that great. PTEC rose from 298.5p to 350p today.

OPTS (Optos) – I liked it – but it’s down about 19% YTD to 175.7p. The fundamentals are quite good, but the share price has been in downtrend for awhile.

TSCO is still futzing around, and at 320p, is still below my purchase price – just a little. Actually, I realised my TA reading was wrong. I thought I had seen an exhaustion gap, but it was a misread. My prediciton of a bounce-back was wrong. It traded in a channel, and gapped down, which should have suggested to me that it would trade in a new, lower channel. This was in fact what happened.

Turnkey Analyst said that EBITDA/TEV was the best-performing metric for value plays.

Amusing quote I saw about falling knives: As with all things the quality of the knife matters.

DLAR (De La Rue). No renewed bid, even now. Oberthur seem to have lost interest.

SRT (Software Radio Tech). That’s a funny old share, that one. The shares skyrocketed after it garnered much popularity in the Motley Fool share competition. However, the rise was unsustained, and they’re actually down 18% YTD. They don’t appear to have translated their promises into actual orders. Tricky company, don’t know how it’ll work out. Overpromising, underdelivering. Share price gets splattered.

DPH (dechra Pharma) – I liked the look of. Performance is lagging the Footsie YTD, though.

Tweedy Browne had an article, and concluded: consistently high past ROEs does not indicate future ones.

AFF (Affero Mining) has had a rough old time, dropping 20% YTD to 44.38p. It had a big run-up during the first month.

HMV dropped 33% over 6 months, now standing at 3.6p. It’s made it past half-way to christmas, let’s see if it can make it all the way. Not dead yet. I promised Wexboy that it wouldn’t be my submission for favourite share. I wouldn’t bet on a last minute change-of-heart, either.

PIC (Pace) – ah, good old Pace. If you want excitement in your life, buy this company. I speculated that Allan Leighton (and I should have mentioned Mike Pulli, too, who’s been getting more and more positive attention) might actually sort this company out. PIC has had an unbelievable run lately, up 82% in 6 months. Come on, my beauty, baby needs a new pair of shoes. Investors are turning much more bullish on this company.

GMG (Game Group) – a very interesting company – or should I say WAS a very interesting company, until it hit the wall. Some good investors were caught out on that one (I wont name names). Steve Baines put it on his retailer deathwatch, whilst Chris Waller at Seeking Alpha argued that the problems were purely cyclical. Baines 1, Waller 0. I expressed skepticism as to its cyclical nature. I said that continual positive management spin beggared belief. It could be, though, that the cyclical argument was correct, but that cycle just proved too deep for GMG to cope with. I think one of the tell-tale signs were that revenues for preowned games fell. Hmmm. Richard Beddard also wrote that GMG were branching out into some peculiar merchandise that seemed a bit desperate (my words rather than his, but I think he shares the sentiment). The good news is that I received an education about what Angry Birds was.

JD. and Blacks were also mentioned by me. More on that in another article though.

I opined that I thought it was easier to spot doomed dogs than winners. One dog I named was GNG (Geong Int’l). Down 69% over 6m. Gut-wrenching. Debtor days has been rising – and is now over 2 years. Nasty.

Happy investing, all.

About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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