What was I talking about in Feb 2012?
EROS – “Mr. Market smells a rat” – looks like Mr. Market is still smelling a rat. RS6m (Relative Strength 6 months): -12.6%. Revenues have shot up from 33m to 134m over 5 years. Adjusted EPS has only inched up, though, from 19.27p to 20.29p. Hmmm. Analysts forecast a 50% increase in EPS for next year, though.
CPP – still ongoing problem with FSA. Shares were suspended earlier this year, but they’re now back on the market. RS6m -62,5%. Ouch. Some of that was due to yesterday’s plunge of a staggering 23% on the release of their half-yearly report. Revenues were down 5% against comparables, but underlying EPS was down 21%.
MrContrarian suggested buying SIA TLPR SRT LOQ SBT BKIR FCCN OMI. According to my calcs, the mean RS6m for that portfolio is -14.8%. Maybe performance is affected by precise buy point, though. We hope.
Paulypilot doubled up on GMG. He noted two big sellers, and reckoned that the price should shoot up. It has since gone bust. Better luck next time mate.
Steve Markus noted a fairly positive update from Finsbury Food (£FIF). RS6m +9.3%. That’s more like it!
Antony Bolton – worth re-iterating his 3 biggest investment mistakes: poor management, ineffective business models, weak balance sheets. Maybe he should add “China” to his list.
£TCG – Thomas Cook – I said it was still a mess then. RS6m +30.0%. Go figure. Debt is worse than ever, and is nearly 10X market cap. I noted: “the IMS didn’t mention the net debt position. I assume it is worse.” I assumed correctly! I’m going on a Thomas Cook holiday in September. If you don’t hear from me by October, then assume I’m still stuck in Spain.
£TALK – TalkTalk – which I described as “cheap’n’nastey” – RS6m +35.1%.
£DTG – value investor favourite Dart Group – RS6m -8.0%. Crowded trade, perhaps? I did notice that it seemed overbought at the time, so perhaps that’s why performance has been poor. Perhaps good timing was required when buying in. Its market cap is below net cash, trades on a PER of 4.6, and a PFCF of 2.18. That would generally be regarded as hellishly cheap. Yield is only 1.86%, though, having a dividend cover of nearly 12. Why so stingy? EPS has grown from 3.87p in 2003 to 15.48p in 2012. Operating profits have been choppy over the decade, but revenues have increased year-on-year.
£CRE – Creston – I noted traded on a PFCF of 4.5. Revenues were up, but headline PBT was slightly down. I suggested that the shares were heavily oversold. Shares have risen from 47.9p to 86.5p, a rise of 80%. Woohoo! Moral of the story would appear to be: better to buy oversold than overbought shares.
£TLPR – Tullett prebon – I liked it – but RS6m -8.8% . Oh well, can’t win them all. It’s currently looking overbought, too.
And that was February 2012. Some thrills, and some spills.