I read Lynch’s Beating the Street many years ago, gave it away, but recently decided to purchase it from Amazon to refresh myself of some of its insights. I think that, whenever someone tries to predict the macro, they should turn to page 41 of his book:
Mr. Zulauf set the tone in 1988 wiht his opening statement that “the honeymoon, from 1982 to 1987, is over.” This was the most optimistic thing said all day. The rest of the time, we debated whether we were going to have a standard bear market, which would take the Dow average down to 1500 or lower, or a killer bear market that would “wipe out most people in the financial community and most investors around the world” (Jimmy Rogers’ fret) and bring about a “worldwide depression like we saw in the early thirties” (Paul Tudor Jones’)
In between worrying about the killer bear market and the worldwide depression, we worried about the trade deficit, unemployment, and the budget deficit.