6 month checkup

Here’s what I was talking about in November 2012

JCP – Much punditry abounds about JCPenney. What’s very interesting is that George Soros recently declared a stake in the company.

12 Lessons Steve Jobs Taught Guy Kawaski
– turned out to be a very popular post. The lessons are: 1) experts and analysts are useless, 2) customers cannot tell you what you need, 3) biggest challenges beget the best work 4) design counts 5) in your presentations use big graphics and fonts, 6) don’t aim for 10% better, aim for 10X better, 7) whether something works or not trumps theory, 8) value is different from price, 9) hire the best people you can, 10) real CEOs can demo, 11) real entrepreneurs ship, 12) some things need to be believed to be seen.

HIBU – up 15% over 6 months, despite my bearishness. Wont this thing ever die?

PIC – Pace – I expressed bullishness, and thought that AKO Capital’s heavy short looked risky. Shares are up 35% since then, so it’s a relief to find that I was “right”, and AKO were wrong. I’m still bullish on PIC, as their margins have improved, they’ll be debt-free at year-end, and the valuation is cheap.

PFD – Premier Food – I explained why I had bought. I changed my mind in the interim due to the departure of Mr Clarke and sold. I made a small loss, but fortunately managed to avoid a larger one. Shares have been in a downtrend since Jan of this year, and have traded mostly sideways over the last month.

CPP – I thought it was a sell. Shares have since collapsed. There was a takeover situation going by outsiders on at the time, which was subsequently withdrawn. This is yet another example of how takeovers are more likely to fail than succeed. Since then, there has been another takeover situation, this time by a director. The bad news is that it will be for 1p, maximum. The deadline for the director to announce his intentions has been extended to 31 May. My guess is that the hesitation on his part means that the deal wont go through. Not that it matters, because the share price is 2.75p, so current shareholders will lose, whatever happens. 1p is so cheap that if the director doesn’t offer that amount, it is reasonable to assume that it is headed for eventual bankruptcy.

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About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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2 Responses to 6 month checkup

  1. Sidekick says:

    Have you considered going short on CPP? I’m tempted, can’t see any other way this is going, but always weary of the unlimited downside with going short.

    • mcturra2000 says:

      I’ve never shorted, and I’m not sure of the mechanics of it. I think other people had explored going short awhile back, but IGG wouldn’t allow a short position. So it might actually be an impossible thing to do. I’m not making any guarantees, though.

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