Saw an interesting article on Husmmen.net stating:
Rule o’ Thumb: When the cover of a major financial magazine [Barron’s] features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it’s probably about time to cash in the chips.
But you need to counterbalance this with the AAII sentiment survey, which shows Bullishness at 28.3% – way below the long-term average of 39.0%.
Also, share prices are up only about 15% over the last 3 years, and 10% over 5 years (ASXX – excludes Inv Trusts). These are hardly stratospheric increases – particularly 10% over 5 years, which I would classify as fairly anaemic. The problem seems to be that many people are measuring the bull market from March 2009 – a time where there was an extreme market dislocation. I suggest to you that if you measure something from an extreme minimum, then the results you obtain will in themselves look extreme.
Remember this piece of market lore: the market will do whatever it needs to in order to prove the majority wrong.
Make of that what you will.