THT

THT (Thorntons) shares +5.3% to 100p on the back on an RNS today. “pre-exceptional profit before tax for the full year to 29 June 2013 will be ahead of current market expectations”. Bonus points go to management for stating that the market consensus is £4.6m. The share price is near its high in the first half of May. Hopefully we’ll see a breakout above this level.

GAH (Gable Holdings) shares +13.0% to 50.30p. John Rosier blogged (http://is.gd/NOdLNe) that he increased his holding, citing new auditors, conservative accounting policies, niche markets, distribution agreements and low forward PE. Chief Executive William Dewsall also bought £99k worth of shares yesterday.

I posted yesterday “No position right now, but that might change if I’m willing to take a short-term gamble on a rebound.” I noticed that the share price started to turn this morning, so I did, in fact, decide to try my hand at the rebound. My entry price is 47.54p (including ALL costs, spreads, etc.). I still hold, and will evaluate my position on an ongoing basis. I am unlikely to post in a timely manner about a change in position.

I think GAH is an interesting share for me to try my hand at swing trading. Sharp moves down in the share price do not necessarily lead to good opportunities, so I’m hoping I’ve picked a good spot here. I think there’s a good combination in the setup. I think the small market cap helps in creating a possible whiplash effect. Director buying was a minor additional factor. Also, the company isn’t in immediate distress, and there is still a bull story to entince buyers. The depth of the fall is also a factor.

A profit isn’t a profit until it’s bagged, of course.

I had made good money in GAH, having previously sold prior to the fall. In retrospect, I feel that this was more luck than judgement. I had previously expressed reservations about the reserving and the reporting date, which gave me some doubts at the time as to whether my position was a good one, I could have easily decided to hold onto my position, rather than sell. Sometimes, you just get lucky. I will certainly give even more weight to how timely a company releases its results statements.

Reading through Paul Scott’s Small Cap Value Report, I was astonished to read that SID (Silverdell) had suspended trading pending
clarification of the group’s financial position. Paul thought that this was likely to be very bad news. Analysts had picked up potential working capital problems awhile back, but I don’t think many were prepared for what we saw today. Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the shares since February, you will notice that it has been declining steadily. Whilst I appreciate that the markets have been wobbly the last couple of months, SID’s price deterioration looks more persistent. I am a former holder in SID, having sold in May, so it was again through amazing luck that I dodged the bullet. One poster puts it succintly: “Flabbergasted! Director buying, new contracts, positive trading statement less than a month ago.”

In other news …

AIE -4.3% on directorate change/finals.

FJET -2.5% on operational update. YTD chart looks a mess, as the share price is down 74% on the year.

OCDO -1.0% on half yearly report.

BWNG +1.1% on IMS

MNZS -0.7% on pre-close trading statement

PSN -1.3% on trading statement.

Happy investing to you all!

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About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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