6 month checkout

What nonsense was I talking about in December? Let’s find out, shall we …

I proposed AGTA (Agiterra) as a short. It is down 50% YTD. I haven’t been keeping tabs on it, but late June seemed to be a particularly turbulent time for the company. Catching up briefly … an operations update on 11 June announced all kinds of goodness, including successful expansion of cattle operations, strong trading at retail units, and a “transformational year”.

On 28 June, it gave an update on Mozambique saying “all
progressing well and continue to perform strongly”. EXCEPT, “there have been a small amount of isolated incidents on the road from Chimoio to Maputo and the Company has taken the decision to refrain from sending transporters to the capital as a short term measure.” Oops.

PVCS (PV Crystalolox Solar) is in the alternative energy sector. It looked like an interesting special situation. “The Group expects to return cash to shareholders during Q2 2013 in a manner that will provide shareholders with an element of choice as to the form in which they receive the cash” I was confused as to what that means, but I’ve discovered that it means that shareholders can opt to receive the cash in a way that either creates a capital, or an income gain.

The share price is up 3% YTD, about in line with the Footsie.

“after careful consideration and after making appropriate enquiries, are of the opinion that the Group has adequate resources to continue in operational existence for at least twelve months from the date of approval of the financial statements. Thus the Group continues to adopt the going concern basis of accounting in preparing the annual financial statements.”

It’s not, perhaps, ideal, when a company has to think about whether it’s still a going concern or not. There doesn’t seem to have been any particular profitable angle to this situation, although admittedly I haven’t been paying attention. Maybe someone who is familiar with the situation can fill me in with what’s going on.

The bull case seems to be that spot price for wafers has likely bottomed, with the share price supported by cash. 7.25p will be returned, and the cash after the return will be about 11.5p. Current share price is 11.87p.

DYOR on this one, as I’m just skimming through document quickly here. It is likely that I am missing something important.

SRT (Software Radio Tech) got a mention by me as always promising “jam tomorrow”. The share price is up 44% YTD, so it looks like the jam has arrived for shareholders.

I argued the case for small-cap growth in December based on valuation metrics. Judging by comments I’ve seen about how well small-cap growth companies were doing lately, I seemed to have called it spot on. Good stuff.

EMG – Man Group – I said offered good value. That didn’t turn out to be especially insightful – the shares are flat YTD, whilst the Footsie is up nearly 6%. The shares actually were up 60% by mid-May, but then fell rapidly. It’s their pesky AHL trading algorithm. It takes months of grinding effort for it to generate returns, which then get wiped out in days when the Market does the wrong thing. I can’t imagine it does much for client sentiment.

I’m reminds me of something I read about asset managers: they’re too fragile to be listed companies.

I’m not saying that EMG will go bust, but it’s obviously been a very very tough call for investors to make. Some very good investors have been burnt by this share. It might go up, it might go down. I don’t know. And neither does anyone else.

I wrote in December that I thought we were close to checkmate in HMV. As it turned out, the shares were suspended mid-January.

HIBU I said was “still bad”. It’s still bad now. We should hear some news before August. Don’t expect it to be good.

Greenblatt: “I don’t make money because I am really smart, I make money because I have a big picture in mind for what I am looking to do. The big picture in mind is the difference between 50% to 60% vs 15% to 20%”


About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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