For the record, Stockopedia’s front page is reporting UK Edition Technicals:
- Advancers 614. Decliners 410
- New Highs 843. New Lows 1018
- Above 200dMA 843. Below 200d MA 1056
- Median forecast PE 14.32
- Median dividend yield 2.70%
- Earnings Growth estimates 13.74%
- FTSE100 6730
I actually think that the market is not in frothy territory, and have confidence (overconfidence?) that I can produce an acceptable return for 2014. However, I think the New Lows exceeding New Highs, and the number of shares below their 200d MA exceeding those above, is likely to be bearish technically. The theory – well at least my interpretation of technical lore – is that the preponderance of new lows indicates a change in momentum for the worse. The 200d MA would also tend to act as either a floor or ceiling for stocks. There are now more ceilings than floors, which is bearish.
The switchover to negativity seems, to my recollection, a very recent development. So maybe we’re in for a bumpy ride. Anyway, we shall see. Don’t take it too seriously, though.
Or perhaps the existence of sites like Stockopedia, wider availability of in depth financial tools, good commentary, etc, is leaving a load of turd stocks permanently out of favour.. You can lower the risk of investing in a going concern by looking at its P-score or whatever, but the risk of an oil explorer, etc, stays as big as ever. But I suppose if so then volatility in a broad class of stocks ought to be in decline, which I don’t think is happening.