Forecast failure

On 17 November 2013, the Express wrote an article: “100 DAYS OF HEAVY SNOW: Britain now facing worst winter in SIXTY YEARS warn forecasters”

How well did that prediction turn out?

Not well. Anecdotally, I reckon that we had the best winter for at least 5 years. According to one poster on the article, there were no snow days during winter.

Moral of the story: use base rates, complex models can be deceptive.


About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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