On 17 November 2013, the Express wrote an article: “100 DAYS OF HEAVY SNOW: Britain now facing worst winter in SIXTY YEARS warn forecasters”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK
How well did that prediction turn out?
Not well. Anecdotally, I reckon that we had the best winter for at least 5 years. According to one poster on the article, there were no snow days during winter.
Moral of the story: use base rates, complex models can be deceptive.
Mark Carter's blog 