On 17 November 2013, the Express wrote an article: “100 DAYS OF HEAVY SNOW: Britain now facing worst winter in SIXTY YEARS warn forecasters”
How well did that prediction turn out?
Not well. Anecdotally, I reckon that we had the best winter for at least 5 years. According to one poster on the article, there were no snow days during winter.
Moral of the story: use base rates, complex models can be deceptive.