The dangers of tinkering

Interesting extract from the AAII Journal April 2014:

Incorrect modifications to the model outnumber correct modifications. Humans can create modifications to a model that can create value. A popular concept in psychology is the “broken leg theory”. Say a human expert develops a model to predict when people will go to the movie theater. The human expert identifies that someone has a broken leg and is able to update the quantative model and outperform the model. The issue is that humans are unable to limit their “tinkering” with the model. The evidence from academic research suggests that the number of incorrect modificationsexperts impose on a model outnumbers the number of correct modifications.

That’s something for me to chew over as I do my Magic Hat portfolio updates.

About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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