Some sketch notes from Nov 2014. No time for grammar.
RGS – Regenersis
Was 203p back then. Now 190p. Outlook statement was bullish, and continued to target double-digit revenue and profitability growth. I expressed hesitancy, citing concerns with market reaction to finals, and possible earnings manipulator. I wasn’t tempted.
Average ROCE is now 5.7%, which is decreasing from a year ago. The quality of the business is low, so it unlikely to make a great long term investment.
HYNS – Haynes – makes me yawn
ROCE was falling at the time, and it seems they made a loss since then. Their Z-score is deteriorating. They reported revenues down 11%. They made an acquisition of Teon Media. In some ways it reminds me of SGI (Stanley Gibbons). It’s going nowhere fast, and they made an acquisition, presumably to distract attention away from the main business. I think SGI is a better company that HYNS, although that’s not saying much. It looks like HYNS continues its relentless decline into irrelevancy. It has a market cap of £16m. Is there any point to its existence?
Paul Scott said, in Sept 2015, “this looks high risk to me”. It went on his bargepole list. This comment by him made me chuckle: “the company says it is required to make a ‘material impairment of goodwill’, relating to its US operation. I don’t care about writing off goodwill, because I always do that anyway”. That has more than one interpretation, of course.
CAMK – Camkids – market reels on trading update
Chinese AIM stock. I said avoid at 37.50p. The company suspended its listing in Sep 2015. It traded at about 4p just before suspension. Why anyone continues to invest in Chinese AIM companies is beyond me. Someone really needs to give Schroders Recovery Fund the memo.
FLYB – Flybe – RNS
Don’t know what to say about this. it was 111.5p at the time, and plunged to about 60p in Jan 2015. Went up to 95p in Aug 2015, and has been tracking sideways since then. Looks like it is edging back to the 95p resistance area.
I’ve no other opinion on FLYB. It’s a company that mostly seems to flounder around a lot. I’ll stick to my Dart shares.
Only down 10% over 1 year. Negative mean ROCE. Went from positive operating cashflows to negative. Huge red flag, I should have thought, and it’s still burning plenty on “investing activities”.
SRP – Serco – a dividend achiever gone wrong
Was on a PE of 18 at the time.
Now fallen 37% over 1 yr and stands on a PE of 33. I’m not surprised. More gloom expected. It made a loss. Net debt is apparently £642m. Market cap is £1212m. Very top-heavy with debt.