On the other hand, maybe not

This just in: sun continues to rise each morning, puppies are still adorable, and oxygen is still free.

I made a note to follow-up on an article in Citywire (https://goo.gl/vDlqxH) written a year ago. The headline was “RBS says ‘sell everything’ in ‘cataclysmic’ warning “. The worries were deflation, oil prices, S&P500 was coming off the boil, and China.

All these people who are long oil and mining companies thinking the dividends are safe are going to discover that they’re not at all safe.

I think it’s fair to say that the prediction was truly terrible. Oil and mining had a fantastic year. The All-Share index was up 20%, and the Footsie reached an all-time high.

I can do no better than to quote the words of Peter Lynch:

The way you lose money in the stock market is to start off with an economic picture.

I would also like to add that I think calls for the market top are premature. The market has had a stonking run lately, that’s true. And just because it’s gone up a lot, does not necessarily mean it will go up a lot more. Of course. But Ken Fisher looked at the behaviour of markets, and observed that bull markets end with a whimper, not with a bang. So we should probably look for a listless pattern to the market before calling a top.

Stay safe out there.


About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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