A year ago, I read an article in the Independent with the headline “Pound sterling slump: The key moments in six charts – and how low it could drop”, with the dire prediction:
Most economists expect the pressure on the pound to get worse, increasing the volatility across the broader market
At the time, the pound was at $1.24 against the dollar. Brexit, innit.
I had this to say about the sky falling:
Personally, I think Sterling will bottom shortly … on the basis that:
- it’s at a 35 year low
- the majority of economists expect the pressure on Sterling to continue.
I work on the simple premise that economists basically have no idea what they are talking about, so when they say things like “and it can only get worse”, you have a big contrarian indicator.
They say that nobody rings a bell at market bottoms … but, well, sometimes they kinda do … and the people ringing the bells are politicians, economists and experts. They may not necessarily sound like bells, but they are bells nevertheless.
So here’s the crunch question: did I call it right?
Well, GBP/USD is now $1.39, up from $1.24. So the answer is “yes”.
And how much money did I make on this brilliant insight of mine? Why, the same amount of money I made on the realisation that when Gordon Brown was selling off our gold, the gold market was likely at a bottom, of course. Which is to say, I made no money at all. C’est la vie.
I was right, though: politicians, economists, experts and alarmist headlines are often good contrarian indicators.
Stay safe out there.
Mark Carter's blog 