PFG – Provident Financial

Six months ago I said (https://mcturra2000.wordpress.com/2017/08/22/pfg-provident-financial-dives-67/) I would follow up on PFG to what has happened. Hence this post.

The shares dived 67% to 571p. Since then, it has recovered 662p. I said:

> 67% is quite a drop for such a large company. I imagine with such a > large gap down it has to make some kind of rebound above 600p some > time in the next 6 months. I am not making a prediction as to whether > the share price will be higher or lower in 6 months time, though. My prediction of a rebound proved to be correct.

It has a Stockopedia value score of 95. It has a momentum score of 7 – not surprisingly – and Stockopedia classifies it as a value trap.

PFG makes up 2.07% of the Woodford Equity Income Fund (https://woodfordfunds.com/funds/weif/portfolio/). He would have taken a big hit on this, and I don’t know whether he has changed the quantity of his holdings.

Imperial Brands is now his top holding. I own some shares in this company, and I am currently down 21% on it. So needless to say, I’m rather disappointed. IMB now has a dividend yield of 7.4%, and a P/FCF of around 9. Analysts are estimating growth for the company. So you either think the dividend will be cut, or it is incredibly cheap. There does not seem to much danger to the dividend. True, the company is a bit top-heavy with debt, but I’m not expecting any catastrophe.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say that IMB will be higher in 6 months time.

Woodford also owns Lloyds in his 5th position. This is noteworthy on account of the fact that Woodford seems generally leery on banks. It’s offering a yield of 6.6%. This is a situation where, once again, you either think the dividend will be cut, or the company is ridiculously cheap. Stockopedia ranks it as a turnaround. So if you believe that, and I think it is reasonable to, this makes Lloyds cheap.

Let’s see in 6 months time.

Stay safe out there.

PFG 662p

IMB 2622p

LLOY 68.7p

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About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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