So, the market is continuing to decline on the back of the Coronavirus. It started in China.
I’m keeping my eye on JMC (JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust), which is down 3.8% to 329p today. It reached a peak of 378p on 20 January. So it is down 13% since then. I’m unconvinced that I’m seeing a compelling value opportunity at the moment.
Cruise ship operator CCL (Carnival) is the second-heaviest faller today, down 5.7% to 3149p. It has a Stockopedia StockRank of 96. It has a momentum score of 76, which surprises me given that the shares have been in downtrend since August 2017. The share price reached 5337p at the time. I owned some shares a few years ago. I did quite well out of them, too. I can’t remember the specifics, though. CCL doesn’t pass any Stockopedia Screens at the moment, so I’m not tempted to punt on it.
The market is taking a battering again today. The Footsie is down 1.22% to 7392, whilst the FT250 is down 0.77% to 21303.
My personal portfolio is actually up 0.1% on the day. Sometimes I zig when the market zags, and vice versa.
CARD (Card Factory) is my best performer today, up 5%. The bad news is that I’m down 54% on the shares. I’m keeping an eye on them, seeing how the shares are faring after their big fall earlier this month. I was hoping that they might bounce back. However, there’s still a downtrend forming, so I’m thinking that exiting is the best way forward. The shares have a Stockopedia Momentum score of 2, which I take as a serious warning flag.
The Magic Hat Portfolio (https://www.stockopedia.com/fantasy-funds/magic-hat-463/) is proving resilient, down only 0.1%. And that is despite having DTG (Dart Group) as its largest holding. Meanwhile, shares in IAG (former Brit Airways) are taking a heavier hit, down 3%.
CTO (T Clarke) and RNK (Rank) reported today. The former is up 2.7% to 130p, and the latter is up 1.9% to 283p. They have certainly helped stop my portfolio falling out of bed this morning.
The shares in my Stockopedia’s Stock picking Challenge are doing OK (https://www.stockopedia.com/challenge/entrant/14739/). YTD, it’s up 6.5% against the market, which is down 0.9%. It’s early days, though, and anything can still happen. Today, my selections are a mix of up, down and staying the same, making them effectively unchanging. So the portfolio should eek out an even higher relative outperformance when the stats are updated today.
My prediction that stocks would fall during January has turned out to be spot on. The virus certainly “helped” my prediction, although of course there was no way I could have known that before the fact.
The prediction wasn’t too hard to make in any event. Santa gave generously at the end of last year, so it was only logical that Jack Frost wanted to claw some of the gains back. Footsie stock have been trading in a channel from 7077 to 7429 from August 2019 to mid-December. They broke to the upside, but started to reverse in mid-January 2020. So, the question is, will the 7429 provide support, or have we effectively broken that, and are heading for 7077?
My guess would be for the latter. It’s just a wild guess, though, on the basis that the virus will continue to be a drag on sentiment. The RSI14 is not in oversold territory, either. But meh, you’d have at least as chance of predicting the markets by gizzard-squeezing than anything I have to say on this particular matter.
Stay safe out there. And avoid breathing in too much!