Six months ago I wrote an article “Has the bell rung at the bottom” in which I wrote:
I am now going to commit an act of utter insanity: by predicting that the market is near the bottom. To quantify that as a specific prediction: the FT100 is within 10% of its 2020 low, and will be higher in 6 months than it is now.
How well did I do? At the time the FT100 was 5091. It is now 6007: increase of 18%. It reached a year low of 4993 on 23 March, just 4 days after my prediction. That is 2% lower than when I made the call, and well within the 10% margin I gave myself.
Needless to say, I am dead chuffed with such an oracular call. What prompted me to stick my neck out was that some scribe from Barron’s wrote:
Fear Grips Markets Again. The Only Safe Place Is Cash.
This is from a news outlet that bills itself as “a leading source of financial news, providing in-depth analysis and commentary.” According to MarketWatch, it has been “delivering market-beating stock picks and investment advice since 1921.”
Hmm, maybe not so much. All of this was a red rag to a bull (no pun intended) to me.
As ever, there is always the possibility of making a cock-up in the bravado department. But sometimes a signal is so loud that the odds weigh heavily in one’s favour.
I did not gain personally out of this, as I was fully invested at the time anyway.
Stay safe out there.