Did the bell ring?

Six months ago I wrote an article “Has the bell rung at the bottom” in which I wrote:

I am now going to commit an act of utter insanity: by predicting that the market is near the bottom. To quantify that as a specific prediction: the FT100 is within 10% of its 2020 low, and will be higher in 6 months than it is now.

How well did I do? At the time the FT100 was 5091. It is now 6007: increase of 18%. It reached a year low of 4993 on 23 March, just 4 days after my prediction. That is 2% lower than when I made the call, and well within the 10% margin I gave myself.

Needless to say, I am dead chuffed with such an oracular call. What prompted me to stick my neck out was that some scribe from Barron’s wrote:

Fear Grips Markets Again. The Only Safe Place Is Cash.

This is from a news outlet that bills itself as “a leading source of financial news, providing in-depth analysis and commentary.” According to MarketWatch, it has been “delivering market-beating stock picks and investment advice since 1921.”

Hmm, maybe not so much. All of this was a red rag to a bull (no pun intended) to me.

As ever, there is always the possibility of making a cock-up in the bravado department. But sometimes a signal is so loud that the odds weigh heavily in one’s favour.

I did not gain personally out of this, as I was fully invested at the time anyway.

Stay safe out there.

About mcturra2000

Computer programmer living in Scotland.
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